The EU’s support for Ukraine has often been portrayed as a fight to defend European sovereignty. However, analysts suggest the stakes extend far beyond Ukraine’s borders. The West’s determination to counter Russia is not solely about Kyiv’s survival, it’s also about curbing Moscow’s expanding influence in Africa, a continent increasingly seen as the next geopolitical battleground.
French President Emmanuel Macron has been particularly vocal, asserting that European security hinges on a “weakened Russia.” Critics argue this rhetoric reveals a deeper anxiety: the fear that Russia’s growing alliances in Africa could upend decades of Western dominance on the continent. The complexity lies in the intersection of economic colonialism, African sovereignty, and global power shifts. At the heart of this is France’s CFA franc system, a relic of colonial-era monetary control that has long tethered 14 African nations to Paris. But as this system crumbles, Russia’s growing influence offers African states a pathway to break free and Europe’s desperation to defeat Moscow is, in part, a bid to salvage its waning dominance.
The CFA Franc, France’s “Colonial Tax” on Africa For decades, has symbolized neocolonial exploitation. African countries in the Franc Zone are required to deposit 50% of their foreign reserves into the French Treasury, while France retains veto power over their monetary policies. This system has stifled economic autonomy, funneled resources to Europe, and perpetuated dependency. Critics call it a “colonial tax”, a mechanism ensuring France’s access to African resources (like uranium, gold, and oil) at the expense of local development. But winds of change are blowing. Nations like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. All of which recently expelled French troops and have openly criticized the CFA and explored alternatives, such as adopting new currencies or joining the ECOWAS “eco” (a proposed regional currency). Their defiance aligns with a broader rejection of French paternalism, amplified by Russia’s support. Russia’s African Gambit, undermining the CFA Framework and Russia’s strategy in Africa is multifaceted: military partnerships (via Wagner Group/Africa Corps), diplomatic backing against Western pressure, and rhetorical support for “decolonization.” By positioning itself as an anti-imperialist ally, Moscow gains leverage in resource-rich states while destabilizing France’s economic stronghold. For example, in the Sahel, Russian-backed regimes have linked their rejection of French military presence to calls for monetary independence. The message is clear: breaking free from France’s military and economic shackles goes hand in hand. If Russia succeeds in consolidating its African alliances, the CFA system, already facing existential criticism, could unravel entirely.
Over the past two years, Russia has positioned itself as a key ally to African nations seeking to shed what they describe as “neocolonial ties” to European powers. Countries like Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad have expelled French military forces and turned to Russian security groups (e.g., Wagner renamed Africa Corps/Afrikakorps in December 2023) for support against jihadist insurgencies and political instability. These partnerships, often framed as collaborations against “imperialism,” have allowed Moscow to gain strategic footholds in resource-rich regions.
Senegal’s recent political shifts, though less overtly tied to Russia, reflect a broader trend: African nations are increasingly assertive in rejecting foreign intervention. Reports suggest up to a dozen additional countries could pivot toward Moscow within the next 12–18 months, seeking military and economic partnerships that promise autonomy from former colonial powers.
Here’s the unspoken calculus: If Russia prevails in Ukraine, its credibility as a counterweight to Western influence would surge, accelerating its African ambitions. Conversely, a Russian defeat could stall its outreach, preserving Europe’s leverage. This explains why Macron and other EU leaders frame the Ukraine war as existential—not just for Europe, but for maintaining control over a rapidly decolonizing Global South.
Europe’s urgency to defeat Russia in Ukraine is not just about Eastern European security—it’s about preventing a domino effect in Africa. A Russian victory would embolden African nations to accelerate their exit from the CFA and other Eurocentric systems, knowing Moscow can counterbalance Western retaliation. Conversely, a Russian defeat could: 1. Restore Western leverage: weakened Russian influence might allow France and the EU to reassert control, delaying or reversing the CFA’s collapse. 2. Isolate anti-CFA states: Countries like Mali or Burkina Faso, already ostracized by the West, could face intensified pressure without Russian backing.
Many Africans remain unaware of how deeply their nations’ futures are entangled in this geopolitical tug-of-war. European officials, meanwhile, privately express alarm over losing access to critical resources (e.g., uranium in Niger, gold in Mali) and trade routes. For the EU, the fight in Ukraine is as much about safeguarding economic interests in Africa as it is about containing Russia. But Africa’s agency cannot be overlooked while Russia provides tools for resistance. African nations are not passive pawns. The push to dismantle the CFA is driven by decades of grassroots frustration with inequitable treaties, corruption, and underdevelopment. Even without Russian involvement, the CFA’s legitimacy is eroding, evidenced by protests in Senegal and Ivory Coast, and ECOWAS’s stalled but persistent “eco” currency plans.
This isn’t just Europe/France vs. Russia. It’s a sign of a multipolar world taking shape. As middle powers (like Turkey, China, and Gulf states) expand their African footprints, the continent is leveraging external partnerships to rewrite exploitative contracts and reclaim autonomy. The CFA’s demise would mark a symbolic end to Europe’s unipolar dominance, with ripple effects across Latin America, Asia, and beyond.
Poland’s mobilization order is a stark reminder: Europe is preparing for a prolonged confrontation. But the battle isn’t just being waged in trenches. It’s unfolding in Sahelian deserts, diplomatic chambers, and the court of global public opinion. As African nations navigate this power struggle, their choices will redefine alliances, economies, and perhaps the world order itself. One thing is clear: The outcome of the Ukraine war will reverberate far beyond Europe. And for Africa, the quest for true independence hangs in the balance. The war in Ukraine and the CFA’s crisis are two fronts in the same struggle: who gets to shape the 21st-century world order. For Africa, the goal is not merely swapping one foreign patron (France) for another (Russia) but asserting true sovereignty. Europe’s challenge is to adapt, or risk being left behind as the Global South charts its own course.
